NEWSLETTER #48 - SOCIETY OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENTISTS

 

Volume 12, Issue 3,  July - September 2023

CONTENT

Chair's Foreword

Extreme Climate and Geohazard Events - Africa 2023

Earth Science Events

References and selected reading

Chair's Foreword*

On the heels of covering geohazard events previously, we are obliged by events to return to the spectre of extreme climate and geohazard events in Africa. The most devastating of recent months of these were the earthquake in Morocco and the floods in Libya in September 2023. Surprisingly, a study published about the same time,  had already indicated the likelihood of significant climate events in the region due to heavy rainfall[1] shortly before they occurred.

The devastation in the aftermath of floods in Derna, eastern Libya, 2023 were the likely result of heavy rainfall carried by Storm Daniel that had also brought widespread flooding to southern Europe. Copernicus Climate Change Services had revealed the hottest three successive months on record in August, as a precursor to the floods in Libya

Extreme Climate amd Geohazard Events - Africa 2023

The risk mapping report mentioned above, is founded on the observations from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)[2] noting that 2023 exhibited the hottest three successive months on record. This led the newly established GeoHazards Risk Mapping Initiative[3] to consider the data in the light of possible impacts on African floods and geohazard events.

   It  was an unfortunate coincidence, that  the disastrous events in Morocco and Libya happened only days after the release of the report. The first of these being a 6.8 magnitude earthquake with epicentre 80km from Marrakesh that happened on 8th September, 2023. The quake claimed over 2,800 lives and over 2,500 were injured.  It was the worst earthquake to hit the country in more that 100 years. Because the earthquake was "shallow" (occurring relatively close to the earth's surface), it caused a greater intensity of shaking and had a more destructive impact on local buildings, with tremors felt within a 400km radius. In a report on expert reactions to the Morocco quake[4], Professor Colin Taylor, professor of earthquake engineering at Bristol University in the UK notes that the correct long term approach to designing against earthquake building collapses for such events will make huge economic and political demands. "Morocco doesn't have huge earthquakes that often - perhaps once in a generation  - so the public consciousness and conscience wanes, and other more immediate life challenges capture their attention and drive political agendas."[5]

   The second but most disastrous of these geohazard events was the case of the floods in Libya that led to over 20,000 fatalities and almost total destruction of the Mediterranean coastal region of Derna in eastern Libya.  Although the disaster was precipitated by exceptionally heavy rainfall, the level of death and destruction from the floods was principally due to the collapse of  multiple dams[6]. Due to the regional instability, the dams, like other infrastructure had been neglected to fall into disrepair. Nevertheless, data from the World Weather Attribution Group suggests that even good maintenance of the dams would not have prevented them from being overwhelmed by the sheer amount of water. The poor level of preparedness, exacerbated the humanitarian disaster. The group used computer simulations to assess how much more likely a storm was compared with before the impact of human-induced climate change and the 1.1C of warming climate already reached.[7]

   In conclusion, the Copernicus Climate Change Services through tracking the amalgamation of data from various sources has revealed that the earth experienced the hottest three successive months on record. This has alerted scientists to a number of areas in which Africa must urgently seek to be prepared. These have been previously identified but are brought into sharper relief now that climate warming is likely to further accelerate climate change and increase the frequency of floods and geohazards. The two catastrophic events in 2023 served to emphasize the importance and wisdom of the Geohazards Mapping Initiative in sounding the climate mitigation alarm bell, coming just days after the report release.  We must be reminded of the areas of priority for Africa to address in mitigating immediate flood and geohazard risks cited by the report including mitigating against

-    increased frequency of floods and droughts

-    increased coastal flooding and erosion

-    shifts in spatial distribution of rainfall in Africa

-    changes in ecosystems due to loss of species/addition of pest, diseases/new species

-     socio-economic implications of escalating geo-hazards

Earth Science Events

 

November 4-5, 2023

International Conference  on Agricultural Engineering

VISION:  https://waset.org/agricultural-engineering-conference-in-november-2023-in-cape-town

VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa

 

December  13-14, 2023

International Conference  on Theoretical and Computational Seismology

VISION:  https://waset.org/theoretical-and-computational-seismology-conference-in-december-2023-in-cairo

VENUE: Cairo, Egypt

March 25-26, 2024

International Conference  on Geophysics & Dynamic Tectonics

VISION:  https://waset.org/geophysics-and-dynamic-tectonics-conference-in-may-2024-in-algiers

VENUE: Algiers, Algeria

 

April  25-27, 2024

International Conference  on Geotechnical Engineering

VISION:  https://www.icge24.com

VENUE: Hammamet, Tunisia

May 15-18, 2024

6th Euro-Mediterranean Conference  for Environmental Integration

VISION:  https://waset.org/geophysics-and-dynamic-tectonics-conference-in-may-2024-in-algiers

VENUE: Marrakesh, Morocco

 

October  6-9, 2024

XVIII African Regional Conference  on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering

VISION:  https://algeos-dz.com/18ARC.html

VENUE: Hammamet, Tunisia

References and selected reading

[1] Understanding the Implications of the Recent Unprecedented Temperature Spike on Geohazards and Floods in Africa, Geo-Hazards Risk Mapping Initiative, September 6, 2023. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-implications-recent-unprecedented%3FtrackingId=MDIGAb4ZV0O1r6N18IRBHQ%253D%253D/?trackingId=MDIGAb4ZV0O1r6N18IRBHQ%3D%3D

[2] Copernicus Climate Change Services ( C3S), Summer 2023: the hottest on record,  August Climate Bulletins, 2023 https://climate.copernicus.eu/summer-2023-hottest-record?utm_source=socialmedia&utm_medium=tw&utm_campaign=CBaugust23

[3] Geo-Hazards Risk Mapping Initiative, September 6, 2023. Ibid.

[4]  Expert Reaction to Morocco Earthquake, Science Media Centre, September 11, 2023. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-morocco-earthquake/#:~:text=Ziggy%20Lubkowski%2C%20Associate%20Director%20and,in%2012%2C000%20to%2015%2C000%20fatalities.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Stuti Mishra, Libya Floods - live: Fears death toll could double as tens of thousand missing after river 'tsunami', Independent, 13 September 2023.

[7] Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region, World Weather Attribution Organisation, https://worldweatherattribution.org/

*Board of the Society of African Earth Scientists: Dr Enas Ahmed (Egypt), Osmin Callis (Secretary - Guyana/Nigeria), Mathada Humphrey (South Africa), Ndivhuwo Cecilia Mukosi (South Africa), Damola Nadi (Nigeria), Dr Chukwunyere Kamalu (Chair - Nigeria).