Tuesday, 7 July 2026

NEWSLETTER #59 - SOCIETY OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENTISTS

 









  Volume 15, Issue 2, April - June 2026


CONTENT

Chair's Foreword

Urban Flood Mitigation in West Africa 2026

Earth Science Events

References and selected reading



Chair's Foreword*

In this issue we face head on, the problem of urban flood mitigation in West Africa.  Recent heavy rains in urban West African coastal regions has led to at least 72 deaths and thousands of people displaced  in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Nigeria. In 2021, as chair of SAES, I attended a post-doctoral review of research work that was being conducted by young African scientists on climate change and mitigation, under the auspices of the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC). One of the presentations at this closing workshop, was on Flood Risk Reduction for three West African capital cities (Abidjan, Ouagadougou and Dakar) by Evelyne Toure [1]. In the main article, we look at proposals for flood mitigation in the light of the 2021 ACPC closing workshop [2] and the urgency now motivated by the recent flooding emergencies  in West Africa.













Urban Flood Mitigation in West Africa 2026

   Urban planners across West Africa broadly recognise the core factors driving extreme weather events. However, recent floods in urban regions in West Africa which have claimed the lives of at least 72 people and displaced thousands[3], bring the need to urgently implement measures addressing these flood risk factors, into sharp focus.

   Floods in Ivory Coast have claimed the highest number of  lives with a death toll of 59 people since May 2026. These death toll figures may still rise as local rescuers continue their search for missing flood victims.[4]

   It is the regional rainy season (usually May to July); and coastal West Africa is experiencing  exceptionally heavy rains  probably due to climate warming. In 2022, the World Meteorology Organisation reported that rains in West Africa had led to extreme events that were 80% more likely to occur as a result of climate change[5]. Extreme rainfall events that were once visiting the region every decade or every few years are now seen as a yearly occurrence. The experience of the populace is that floods in West Africa are becoming a more frequent geohazard, along with the other geohazards it brings, such as landslides and mudslides. Continentally, Africa is already witnessing extreme weather events due to global warming in spite of the fact that the continent only contributes about 4% of global carbon emissions.

   In neighbouring Ghana in the Accra region, 13 deaths resulted from floods due to rainy season precipitation where 140mm of rain fell in a single day. This equates approximately to two months of rain in a day. In fact in 2025, the highest rainfall in a single day was at a peak of 56 mm.

   Nearly all of the reports of urban regional floods acknowledge the role played by the impact of poor waste management and urban population growth on existing  infrastructure. In the case of Ghana, the president himself  acknowledged the likely impact of unplanned urban development. President Mahama cited the special case of Accra which lies between the Akwapim mountain range  and the coast facing the Atlantic Ocean.

   Nigeria was also affected - as it was in 2025. Apart from recent flooding in the Lekki area of Lagos, parts of northern Nigeria also experienced floods in 2025 which were their worst in 60 years [6] and which left 150 people dead and displaced thousands after destroying their dwellings. This year, the Nigerian Meteorological Association (NiMet) predicts rainfall increases in the capital territory, Abuja, as well as 9 other states, with many in the north.

   Recent reports of urban regional flooding in West Africa broadly recognise the factors that contribute to extreme urban flood events. They recognise 

1) poor waste management impact on existing infrastructure

2) growing urban population impact on existing infrastructure

But in addition to these, a major setback in flood mitigation  in Africa is the pattern of 

3) unregulated and unplanned construction on actual wetlands  



Wetlands - Their Role in  West African Flood Mitigation

To appreciate the seriousness of setback of factor 3) above, we must appreciate the definition  and function of a wetland. A wetland by definition is: "...a distinct semi-aquatic ecosystem, whose ground covers are flooded or saturated in water either permanently, for years or decades, or only seasonally".[7]   In simple terms, it is an area of marsh land capable of absorbing large amounts of water. It serves as a basin where the city flood excess water can drain. For this reason it is a great obstacle to progress when residents build dwellings and structures on wetlands which are supposed to serve as the regional storm basin. For the sake of community safety, building on wetlands should be strictly prohibited, as wetlands should ideally receive the excess floodwater from the city.

   It is encouraging that virtually all major cities in West Africa have significant wetland areas, which can readily be incorporated into every West African city's flood defence plans:- For example


Owerri, capital of Imo state, Nigeria  - Owerri wetlands

Accra, capital of Ghana - Densu and Sakumonoh wetlands

Abidjan, capital of Cote d'ivoire, Ebrie and Aghien Lagoons


and many other examples. However, their purpose is defeated if unregulated buildings and settlements are located within them.


Conclusion

The levels of flooding we have witnessed across West Africa is in some instances so tumultuous as to suggest there is an element of climate change-induced flooding that we cannot control. Following basic common sense measures such as mapping the city guttering networks for the sake of maintenance and  gutter clearing, West African cities can more effectively discharge excess rain water to a storm basin. Local wetlands in urban regions employed in this way can play a valuable role in mitigating urban flooding; but only if unregulated buildings within them are prohibited.

   Policy makers are urged to take note and ensure implementation of this measure protecting city wetlands as essential storm basins, by putting aside the sufficient relocation budgeting. It is better in the long term to bear the the cost of relocating citizens and providing alternative dwellings outside of wetlands or storm basin zones before a catastrophic flood occurs. Waiting until after a flood calamity has occurred, leads to possible loss of life and forced relocation under potentially traumatic circumstances, with the accompanying costs still having to be met.

   For a deeper analysis of how urban expansion impacts flood mitigation in West Africa, readers can refer to the study by Enu, K.B, et al, exploring wetlands as nature-based solutions for West African Urban flooding [8].


Earth Science Book Review 

- A new publication by Society of African Earth Scientists





















"Earth, Water, Energy and  Climate - The Collected Newsletters of the Society of African Earth Scientists 2012-2026"

Published by Orisa Press. (c) Society of African Earth Scientists, May 2026.

Edited by Chukwunyere Kamalu


What emerges from these pages is the cumulative weight of knowledge - built issue by issue: detailed reporting on weather disasters and geo-hazard events; reflections on geotourism, geoheritage and scientific heritage such as the Ishango Bone; documentation of workshops from Ghana to Nigeria; and sustained engagement with Africa’s renewable‑energy future. Together, these contributions demonstrate how the Society’s newsletters have matured into a reliable, long-term record of Earth science across the continent—capturing both the scientific realities on the ground and the intellectual currents shaping African responses.

Both print copy and ebooks are available from https://orisapress.blogspot.com



Earth Science Events


6-11 July 2026

5th International Conference on African Rivers: Research Development and Innovation

VENUE: Mohamed V. University, Rabat, Morocco.


21 July 2026

International Conference on Hydraulics and Civil Engineering Solutions

VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.


21-23 September 2026

African Water Security Conference - Towards and Secure and Resilient Africa

VENUE: Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.


8-11 December 2026

7th International Africa Congress on Hydro environment and engineering Research

- Water Resilience & Innovation

VENUE: Kigali, Rwanda.


25 April 2027

Society of Africa Earth Scientists 15th Year Celebration: 

Earth, Water, Energy & Climate

A  conference to celebrate 15 years in existence of the Society of African Earth Scientists. It features a key note talk by geophysicist, Henok Tewelde (P.G), On the Role of Exploration Geophysics in Sustainable Groundwater Management in Africa, floor discussions and a book launch of the Society's latest publication: Earth Water Energy and Climate - A collection of its first fourteen years of  periodic newsletters from 2012 - 2026.

VENUE: Bernie Grants Arts Centre, London


References and Selected Reading


[1] Toure, E.N., Flood Risk Reduction Under the Paris Agreement for Three West African Cities, CR4D, End of grant workshop, 21-23 June, Nairobi, Kenya, 2021.

[2] SAES Newsletter #39.

[3] Guardian 2 July 2026, Cote d'Ivoire flood kills 59 as west Africa endures torrential rains.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Tandon, A., West Africa's deadly rainfall in 2022 made "80 times more likely" by climate change,  Carbon Brief, Nov., 2022.

[6] Guardian - Faye Hulton (Met desk), Weather tracker: Nigeria hit by deadly flooding described as worst in 60 years, 2 Jun 2025.

[7] Wikipedia, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/wetland 

[8] Enu, K.B., Merk, F., Su, H., Rauch, M., Zingraff-Hamed, A., Broich, K., Forster, K., Pauleit, S., and M. Disse,  A scenario based analysis of wetlands as nature-based solutions for flood risk mitigation using the TELEMAC-2D model, Science Direct, Nature-Based Solutions, Vol. 7June 2025, 100236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2025.100236



*Board of the Society of African Earth Scientists: Dr Enas Ahmed (Egypt), Osmin Callis (Secretary - Guyana), Dr Stanley Echebima (Nigeria), Mathada Humphrey (South Africa), Damola Nadi (Nigeria), Dr Chukwunyere Kamalu (Chair - Nigeria).





Sunday, 29 March 2026

NEWSLETTER #58 - SOCIETY OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENTISTS









  Volume 15, Issue 1, January - March 2026


CONTENT

Chair's Foreword

The Affordability of Solar Power in Africa

Earth Science Events

References and selected reading



Chair's Foreword*

In this issue we attempt to articulate the difficult problem of making solar energy affordable in Africa and hence realising some of the enormous potential that it promises, as well as its obstacles. We consult reports on the SE4All (Sustainable Energy for All) programme co-chaired by the UN secretary general and president of the World Bank, the Outlook for Africa in the development of solar PV and other reports which look at Nigeria as a case study applicable to other African countries.


Figure 1.  Small Solar: One visible half of a 1.5kVA Solar Panel Installation in Owerri, Nigeria


Affordable Solar Electricity in Africa

   Off-grid solar energy installations are growing across Africa. This is partly due to the high cost of regional electricity, and the ongoing difficulty communities in Africa have in accessing the  national grid.[1]

   Although Africa has 60% of the world's best solar resources, only 3% of the continent's electricity is generated from solar [2]. However, the significant growth of solar in recent years is well illustrated by the fact that in 2024 alone 2.4 GW (Giga Watts) of new solar capacity was installed on the continent. South Africa and Egypt led the way in having the largest capacities in installation. The continental surge in solar is expected to have reached over 40% in 2025[3]. Despite significant growth of solar installations in Nigeria, the solar energy sector still represents only 0.2% of Nigeria's energy generation. [4]

   A report detailing Nigeria's attempt to accelerate its electrification in rural areas notes that Nigeria is the  single nation with the highest number of people without access to electricity[5]. In seeming response to the need to improve Nigeria's record, the government has put in place a "Distributed Access to Renewable Energy Scale-up" (DARES) Project, designed to close the electricity access gap. The project hopes to supply electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians by means of 1,350 mini-grids [6].

   According to a report on global off-grid solar market trends, published by the World Bank, there are 685 million people around the world who have no access to electricity, and most of these are in Africa [7]. As noted above, Nigeria houses the greatest nation population who have no electricity access.

   A report on a Sustainable Energy Project (SE4All)  co-chaired by the World Bank President and the UN secretary general, puts forward a multi-tier framework for understanding access to energy in Africa and elsewhere. We essentially employ a chart (Table 1) mapping solar energy capacity against cost[8], and in the process map the entire societal spectrum of affordability for different household incomes as well as businesses and trade activities. By this approach we are able to see the levels of electricity access that are required for various industries and economic activities[9]. The World Bank had created this report to guide investors in the energy sector; but the information provided is also highly useful for solar power service providers who would like to tailor their provision for all income levels in the market, thereby twinning the provision of a comprehensive community service with potentially greater business sustainability; since a larger market is reached in catering for all income brackets of  solar power consumers, rather than merely focusing on a minority group made up of higher income consumers. This might seem counter intuitive to the solar business sector; but we must return to this in our conclusion.

   In conclusion, the framework report notes that the vast majority of Nigerian citizens, and on a continental scale, the vast majority of Africans, have an income level only commensurate with the lowest level of solar power provision. That is, 0 to 0.042 kVA. This equates to the provision of lights only, via a DC  power facility, such as solar lanterns, rather than an inverter, which  at minimum will provide 0.15kVA.  Many Africans (with Nigerians a case in point) will fall into the tier level 0 - 1, which has the capacity for only 1-3 LED lights and phone charging and has an installation cost of N5,000 to N50,000. Tier 1 to 2 provides for more lights and phone charging (possibly with a small fan,  but not TV ) at an even greater cost of  N80,000 to N200,000. 

 

Table 1.     World Bank Multi-tier Framework (MTF) and Real World Appliance Usage

Inverter

Size

kVA

MTF

Tier

Daily Energy

Capability

(kWh)

Typical appliance

load

User Profile &

Context

Estimated Cost Range (N)

N1 = approx. $1400

0kVA (DC only) solar lanterns

0-1

0.01 – 0.1 kWh

1-3 LED lights, phone charger

Poorest rural household/refugee camps

N5,000 – N50,000

0.15-0.3kVA

1-2

0.2-0.5kWh

1-3 LED lights, phone charger. No TV. Small fan.

Households at below minimum wage. First step beyond fuel-based lights.

N80,000 – N200,000

0.5kVA

2

0.6 – 1.2kWh

All tier 1 plus TV, medium fan, small blender. No fridge.

Lower income urban household, rural teacher, well-off petty traders.

N600,000 – N850,000

1kVA

3

1.5 – 3kWh

Tier 2 plus small fridge, 2 fans, TV, computer, laptop, printer. Ltd simultaneous use.

Lower middle-class income, small office, boutique, clinic requirements for lighting and equipment.

N900,000 – N1.4 million.

1.5 – 2kVA

3-4

3 – 6kWh

Tier 3 plus medium fridge, water pump, electric iron, small microwave. Ltd simultaneous use.

Middle class family. 3-4 bedrooms. Standard barber shop, large kiosk with fridge.

N1.4 million – N2.2 million.

3kVA

4

6-10kWh

All tier 1 plus one split-unit AC(1HP) OR, washing machine. Better simultaneous use.

Affluent home. Or medium size shop. Multiple freezers. Computer business centre. Pharmacy.

N2.5 million  – N3.8 million

5.0 kVA

4-5

10-20kWh

Can run 2 x split AC (1.5HP total), full kitchen (blender, microwave, small cooker), full office. Load management essential.

Large home/ small hotel/ restaurant/ workshop (welding, carpentry).

N4.5 million – N7million

7.5kVA

5

15-30kWh

Runs multiple Acs, electric water heater, full refrigerator + freezer, washing machine, managed electric cooker use.

Large villa/ small school/ hospital ward/ small factory/ industrial level.

N7 million – N12 million

10kVA

5+

20-40kWh

Full home electrification without load management.

Commercial enterprise/ assembly plant/ large hotel/apartment block/estate home

N8 million – N15 million +

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   The minimum wage in Nigeria amounts to about N30,000 per month. This is theoretical really, since only 20% of Nigerians are in formal employment where this rate applies. About 80% of the population exists outside the formal employment sector where their income falls way below this level. Given that the minimum wage in Nigeria amounts to about N360,000 per year, it is apparent that the cost of even a level 1 to level 2 scheme is not affordable for many Nigerians, who would need about  6-7 months of their salary upfront in order to save up enough to purchase the most basic solar system with a solar power inverter. Finance might only be possible through loan schemes, where the user pays periodically until the cost of the system has been paid off and the customer then owns the system. 

  Other than the development of loan schemes which are difficult to manage successfully in a country like Nigeria with such a large portion of the population living under the minimum wage level; the other option is for solar providers to wait for solar costs to fall still further; or appreciate that counter intuitively (as noted above), greater profitability actually may not lie in targeting only a wealthier tier of consumers (as most of the market seems conditioned to do); but in making provision for all income levels - since the majority of customers can only afford the lowest level basic systems that provide domestic lighting, phone charging and small fans. Providers should accept that most of their income could lie in making more low income provision such as DC lights, phone charging and small energy efficient fans and other appliances with low energy requirements, rather than chasing providing only for wealthier homes which are fewer and further between.

   Finally, a very real beacon of hope for small income households in Africa, lies in the ongoing technological development of appliances specifically for use with solar energy technology. This means we are seeing the development of lower energy appliances that can operate with less power, such as LED lighting, and very low energy electric fans. This means that in the future appliances might become so energy efficient as to become operable at more affordable low wattage. This trend is certainly being observed with low energy lights and fans which are now operable at very low outputs as in table 2, below, that are commensurate with tier 0 - tier 1 and 2 solar capacities[10]. 


Table 2. Low Energy Modern Fans

USB mini-fans: 2-10 Watts

Small desk fans: 5-30 Watts

Energy-efficient BLDC (Brushless DC) ceiling fans: 10-30 Watts



Earth Science Events


8 April 2026

International Conference on Conservation Agriculture and Soil Erosion Control

VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.


21-23 April 2026

Future Health Africa 2026: Re-imagining Healthcare through technology in Africa

VENUE: Casablanca, Morocco.


6-11 July 2026

5th International Conference on African Rivers: Research Development and Innovation

VENUE: Mohamed V. University, Rabat, Morocco.


21 July

International Conference on Hydraulics and Civil Engineering Solutions

VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.


21-23 September 2026

African Water Security Conference - Towards and Secure and Resilient Africa

VENUE: Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.


8-11 December

7th International Africa Congress on Hydro environment and engineering Research

- Water Resilience & Innovation

VENUE: Kigali, Rwanda.



References and Selected Reading


[1] Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-28, Global Solar Council, 2025.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] 2025 Renewable Energy (Solar) Industry Report (Nigeria), Agusto, 2025.  https://agustoresearch.com

[5] Nigeria Accelerates Rural Electrification, Africa Energy Portal (AEP), 08 January, 2026.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2024, ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme), World Bank, 2024. https://www.esmap.org/sites/default/files/esmap-files/2024-off-grid-solar-market-trends-report.pdf.

[8] Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined, World Bank Group 2026, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/energy-access

Citation: Bhatia, M; Angelou, N. 2015. Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined. ESMAP Technical Report; 008/15 (c) World Bank.http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24368

License: CC BY 3.0 IGO ; https://doi.org/10.1596/24368

[9] Ibid.

[10] How Much Electricity Does a Fan Use? Complete 2025 Cost Guide, Solar Tech, July 2025.




*Board of the Society of African Earth Scientists: Dr Enas Ahmed (Egypt), Osmin Callis (Secretary - Guyana/Nigeria), Dr Stanley Echebima (Nigeria), Mathada Humphrey (South Africa), Damola Nadi (Nigeria), Dr Chukwunyere Kamalu (Chair - Nigeria).