NEWSLETTER #58 - SOCIETY OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENTISTS

  Volume 15, Issue 1, January - March 2026

CONTENT

Chair's Foreword

The Affordability of Solar Power in Africa

Earth Science Events

References and selected reading

Chair's Foreword*

In this issue we attempt to articulate the difficult problem of making solar energy affordable in Africa and hence realising some of the enormous potential that it promises, as well as its obstacles. We consult reports on the SE4All (Sustainable Energy for All) programme co-chaired by the UN secretary general and president of the World Bank, the Outlook for Africa in the development of solar PV and other reports which look at Nigeria as a case study applicable to other African countries.

Figure 1.  Small Solar: One visible half of a 1.5kVA Solar Panel Installation in Owerri, Nigeria

Affordable Solar Electricity in Africa

   Off-grid solar energy installations are growing across Africa. This is partly due to the high cost of regional electricity, and the ongoing difficulty communities in Africa have in accessing the  national grid.[1]

   Although Africa has 60% of the world's best solar resources, only 3% of the continent's electricity is generated from solar [2]. However, the significant growth of solar in recent years is well illustrated by the fact that in 2024 alone 2.4 GW (Giga Watts) of new solar capacity was installed on the continent. South Africa and Egypt led the way in having the largest capacities in installation. The continental surge in solar is expected to have reached over 40% in 2025[3]. Despite significant growth of solar installations in Nigeria, the solar energy sector still represents only 0.2% of Nigeria's energy generation. [4]

   A report detailing Nigeria's attempt to accelerate its electrification in rural areas notes that Nigeria is the  single nation with the highest number of people without access to electricity[5]. In seeming response to the need to improve Nigeria's record, the government has put in place a "Distributed Access to Renewable Energy Scale-up" (DARES) Project, designed to close the electricity access gap. The project hopes to supply electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians by means of 1,350 mini-grids [6].

   According to a report on global off-grid solar market trends, published by the World Bank, there are 685 million people around the world who have no access to electricity, and most of these are in Africa [7]. As noted above, Nigeria houses the greatest nation population who have no electricity access.

   A report on a Sustainable Energy Project (SE4All)  co-chaired by the World Bank President and the UN secretary general, puts forward a multi-tier framework for understanding access to energy in Africa and elsewhere. We essentially employ a chart (Table 1) mapping solar energy capacity against cost[8], and in the process map the entire societal spectrum of affordability for different household incomes as well as businesses and trade activities. By this approach we are able to see the levels of electricity access that are required for various industries and economic activities[9]. The World Bank had created this report to guide investors in the energy sector; but the information provided is also highly useful for solar power service providers who would like to tailor their provision for all income levels in the market, thereby twinning the provision of a comprehensive community service with potentially greater business sustainability; since a larger market is reached in catering for all income brackets of  solar power consumers, rather than merely focusing on a minority group made up of higher income consumers. This might seem counter intuitive to the solar business sector; but we must return to this in our conclusion.

   In conclusion, the framework report notes that the vast majority of Nigerian citizens, and on a continental scale, the vast majority of Africans, have an income level only commensurate with the lowest level of solar power provision. That is, 0 to 0.042 kVA. This equates to the provision of lights only, via a DC  power facility, such as solar lanterns, rather than an inverter, which  at minimum will provide 0.15kVA.  Many Africans (with Nigerians a case in point) will fall into the tier level 0 - 1 kVA, which has the capacity for only 1-3 LED lights and phone charging and has an installation cost of N5,000 to N50,000. Even tier 1kVA to 2kVA provides for more lights and phone charging (possibly with a small fan,  but not TV ) at an even greater cost of  N80,000 to N200,000. 

 

Table 1.     World Bank Multi-tier Framework (MTF) and Real World Appliance Usage

Inverter Size kVA	MTF Tier	Daily Energy Capability (kWh)	Typical appliance load	User Profile & Context	Estimated Cost Range (N) N1 = approx. $1400
0kVA (DC only) solar lanterns	0-1	0.01 – 0.1 kWh	1-3 LED lights, phone charger	Poorest rural household/refugee camps	N5,000 – N50,000
0.15-0.3kVA	1-2	0.2-0.5kWh	1-3 LED lights, phone charger. No TV. Small fan.	Households at below minimum wage. First step beyond fuel-based lights.	N80,000 – N200,000
0.5kVA	2	0.6 – 1.2kWh	All tier 1 plus TV, medium fan, small blender. No fridge.	Lower income urban household, rural teacher, well-off petty traders.	N600,000 – N850,000
1kVA	3	1.5 – 3kWh	Tier 2 plus small fridge, 2 fans, TV, computer, laptop, printer. Ltd simultaneous use.	Lower middle-class income, small office, boutique, clinic requirements for lighting and equipment.	N900,000 – N1.4 million.
1.5 – 2kVA	3-4	3 – 6kWh	Tier 3 plus medium fridge, water pump, electric iron, small microwave. Ltd simultaneous use.	Middle class family. 3-4 bedrooms. Standard barber shop, large kiosk with fridge.	N1.4 million – N2.2 million.
3kVA	4	6-10kWh	All tier 1 plus one split-unit AC(1HP) OR, washing machine. Better simultaneous use.	Affluent home. Or medium size shop. Multiple freezers. Computer business centre. Pharmacy.	N2.5 million  – N3.8 million
5.0 kVA	4-5	10-20kWh	Can run 2 x split AC (1.5HP total), full kitchen (blender, microwave, small cooker), full office. Load management essential.	Large home/ small hotel/ restaurant/ workshop (welding, carpentry).	N4.5 million – N7million
7.5kVA	5	15-30kWh	Runs multiple Acs, electric water heater, full refrigerator + freezer, washing machine, managed electric cooker use.	Large villa/ small school/ hospital ward/ small factory/ industrial level.	N7 million – N12 million
10kVA	5+	20-40kWh	Full home electrification without load management.	Commercial enterprise/ assembly plant/ large hotel/apartment block/estate home	N8 million – N15 million +

   The minimum wage in Nigeria amounts to about N30,000 per month. This is theoretical really, since only 20% of Nigerians are in formal employment where this rate applies. About 80% of the population exists outside the formal employment sector where their income falls way below this level. Given that the minimum wage in Nigeria amounts to about N360,000 per year, it is apparent that the cost of even a level 1 to level 2 scheme is not affordable for many Nigerians, who would need about  6-7 months of their salary upfront in order to save up enough to purchase the most basic solar system with a solar power inverter. Finance might only be possible through loan schemes, where the user pays periodically until the cost of the system has been paid off and the customer then owns the system. 

  Other than the development of loan schemes which are difficult to manage successfully in a country like Nigeria with such a large portion of the population living under the minimum wage level; the other option is for solar providers to wait for solar costs to fall still further; or appreciate that counter intuitively (as noted above), greater profitability actually may not lie in targeting only a wealthier tier of consumers (as most of the market seems conditioned to do); but in making provision for all income levels - since the majority of customers can only afford the lowest level basic systems that provide domestic lighting, phone charging and small fans. Providers should accept that most of their income could lie in making more low income provision such as DC lights, phone charging and small energy efficient fans and other appliances with low energy requirements, rather than chasing providing only for wealthier homes which are fewer and further between.

   Finally, a very real beacon of hope for small income households in Africa, lies in the ongoing technological development of appliances specifically for use with solar energy technology. This means we are seeing the development of lower energy appliances that can operate with less power, such as LED lighting, and very low energy electric fans. This means that in the future appliances might become so energy efficient as to become operable at more affordable low wattage. This trend is certainly being observed with low energy lights and fans which are now operable at very low outputs as in table 2, below, that are commensurate with tier 0 - tier 1 and 2 solar capacities[10]. 

Table 2. Low Energy Modern Fans

USB mini-fans: 2-10 Watts

Small desk fans: 5-30 Watts

Energy-efficient BLDC (Brushless DC) ceiling fans: 10-30 Watts

Earth Science Events

8 April 2026

International Conference on Conservation Agriculture and Soil Erosion Control

VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.

21-23 April 2026

Future Health Africa 2026: Re-imagining Healthcare through technology in Africa

VENUE: Casablanca, Morocco.

6-11 July 2026

5th International Conference on African Rivers: Research Development and Innovation

VENUE: Mohamed V. University, Rabat, Morocco.

21 July

International Conference on Hydraulics and Civil Engineering Solutions

VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.

21-23 September 2026

African Water Security Conference - Towards and Secure and Resilient Africa

VENUE: Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

8-11 December

7th International Africa Congress on Hydro environment and engineering Research

- Water Resilience & Innovation

VENUE: Kigali, Rwanda.

References and Selected Reading

[1] Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-28, Global Solar Council, 2025.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] 2025 Renewable Energy (Solar) Industry Report (Nigeria), Agusto, 2025.  https://agustoresearch.com

[5] Nigeria Accelerates Rural Electrification, Africa Energy Portal (AEP), 08 January, 2026.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2024, ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme), World Bank, 2024. https://www.esmap.org/sites/default/files/esmap-files/2024-off-grid-solar-market-trends-report.pdf.

[8] Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined, World Bank Group 2026, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/energy-access

Citation: Bhatia, M; Angelou, N. 2015. Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined. ESMAP Technical Report; 008/15 (c) World Bank.http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24368

License: CC BY 3.0 IGO ; https://doi.org/10.1596/24368

[9] Ibid.

[10] How Much Electricity Does a Fan Use? Complete 2025 Cost Guide, Solar Tech, July 2025.

*Board of the Society of African Earth Scientists: Dr Enas Ahmed (Egypt), Osmin Callis (Secretary - Guyana/Nigeria), Dr Stanley Echebima (Nigeria), Mathada Humphrey (South Africa), Damola Nadi (Nigeria), Dr Chukwunyere Kamalu (Chair - Nigeria).