Volume 15, Issue 1, January - March 2026
CONTENT
Chair's Foreword
The Affordability of Solar Power in Africa
Earth Science Events
References and selected reading
Chair's Foreword*
In this issue we attempt to articulate the difficult problem of making solar energy affordable in Africa and hence realising some of the enormous potential that it promises, as well as its obstacles. We consult reports on the SE4All (Sustainable Energy for All) programme co-chaired by the UN secretary general and president of the World Bank, the Outlook for Africa in the development of solar PV and other reports which look at Nigeria as a case study applicable to other African countries.
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| Figure 1. Small Solar: One visible half of a 1.5kVA Solar Panel Installation in Owerri, Nigeria |
Affordable Solar Electricity in Africa
Off-grid solar energy installations are growing across Africa. This is partly due to the high cost of regional electricity, and the ongoing difficulty communities in Africa have in accessing the national grid.[1]
Although Africa has 60% of the world's best solar resources, only 3% of the continent's electricity is generated from solar [2]. However, the significant growth of solar in recent years is well illustrated by the fact that in 2024 alone 2.4 GW (Giga Watts) of new solar capacity was installed on the continent. South Africa and Egypt led the way in having the largest capacities in installation. The continental surge in solar is expected to have reached over 40% in 2025[3]. Despite significant growth of solar installations in Nigeria, the solar energy sector still represents only 0.2% of Nigeria's energy generation. [4]
A report detailing Nigeria's attempt to accelerate its electrification in rural areas notes that Nigeria is the single nation with the highest number of people without access to electricity[5]. In seeming response to the need to improve Nigeria's record, the government has put in place a "Distributed Access to Renewable Energy Scale-up" (DARES) Project, designed to close the electricity access gap. The project hopes to supply electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians by means of 1,350 mini-grids [6].
According to a report on global off-grid solar market trends, published by the World Bank, there are 685 million people around the world who have no access to electricity, and most of these are in Africa [7]. As noted above, Nigeria houses the greatest nation population who have no electricity access.
A report on a Sustainable Energy Project (SE4All) co-chaired by the World Bank President and the UN secretary general, puts forward a multi-tier framework for understanding access to energy in Africa and elsewhere. We essentially employ a chart (Table 1) mapping solar energy capacity against cost[8], and in the process map the entire societal spectrum of affordability for different household incomes as well as businesses and trade activities. By this approach we are able to see the levels of electricity access that are required for various industries and economic activities[9]. The World Bank had created this report to guide investors in the energy sector; but the information provided is also highly useful for solar power service providers who would like to tailor their provision for all income levels in the market, thereby twinning the provision of a comprehensive community service with potentially greater business sustainability; since a larger market is reached in catering for all income brackets of solar power consumers, rather than merely focusing on a minority group made up of higher income consumers. This might seem counter intuitive to the solar business sector; but we must return to this in our conclusion.
In conclusion, the framework report notes that the vast majority of Nigerian citizens, and on a continental scale, the vast majority of Africans, have an income level only commensurate with the lowest level of solar power provision. That is, 0 to 0.042 kVA. This equates to the provision of lights only, via a DC power facility, such as solar lanterns, rather than an inverter, which at minimum will provide 0.15kVA. Many Africans (with Nigerians a case in point) will fall into the tier level 0 - 1 kVA, which has the capacity for only 1-3 LED lights and phone charging and has an installation cost of N5,000 to N50,000. Even tier 1kVA to 2kVA provides for more lights and phone charging (possibly with a small fan, but not TV ) at an even greater cost of N80,000 to N200,000.
Table 1. World Bank Multi-tier Framework (MTF) and Real World Appliance Usage
|
Inverter Size kVA |
MTF Tier |
Daily Energy Capability (kWh) |
Typical appliance load |
User Profile & Context |
Estimated Cost Range (N) N1 = approx. $1400 |
|
0kVA (DC only)
solar lanterns |
0-1 |
0.01 – 0.1
kWh |
1-3 LED
lights, phone charger |
Poorest rural
household/refugee camps |
N5,000 – N50,000 |
|
0.15-0.3kVA |
1-2 |
0.2-0.5kWh |
1-3 LED
lights, phone charger. No TV. Small fan. |
Households at
below minimum wage. First step beyond fuel-based lights. |
N80,000 – N200,000 |
|
0.5kVA |
2 |
0.6 – 1.2kWh |
All tier 1
plus TV, medium fan, small blender. No fridge. |
Lower income
urban household, rural teacher, well-off petty traders. |
N600,000 – N850,000 |
|
1kVA |
3 |
1.5 – 3kWh |
Tier 2 plus
small fridge, 2 fans, TV, computer, laptop, printer. Ltd simultaneous use. |
Lower middle-class
income, small office, boutique, clinic requirements for lighting and equipment. |
N900,000 – N1.4
million. |
|
1.5 – 2kVA |
3-4 |
3 – 6kWh |
Tier 3 plus
medium fridge, water pump, electric iron, small microwave. Ltd simultaneous
use. |
Middle class
family. 3-4 bedrooms. Standard barber shop, large kiosk with fridge. |
N1.4 million –
N2.2 million. |
|
3kVA |
4 |
6-10kWh |
All tier 1
plus one split-unit AC(1HP) OR, washing machine. Better simultaneous use. |
Affluent
home. Or medium size shop. Multiple freezers. Computer business centre. Pharmacy. |
N2.5 million – N3.8 million |
|
5.0 kVA |
4-5 |
10-20kWh |
Can run 2 x
split AC (1.5HP total), full kitchen (blender, microwave, small cooker), full
office. Load management essential. |
Large home/
small hotel/ restaurant/ workshop (welding, carpentry). |
N4.5 million –
N7million |
|
7.5kVA |
5 |
15-30kWh |
Runs multiple
Acs, electric water heater, full refrigerator + freezer, washing machine,
managed electric cooker use. |
Large villa/
small school/ hospital ward/ small factory/ industrial level. |
N7 million –
N12 million |
|
10kVA |
5+ |
20-40kWh |
Full home electrification
without load management. |
Commercial
enterprise/ assembly plant/ large hotel/apartment block/estate home |
N8 million –
N15 million + |
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The minimum wage in Nigeria amounts to about N30,000 per month. This is theoretical really, since only 20% of Nigerians are in formal employment where this rate applies. About 80% of the population exists outside the formal employment sector where their income falls way below this level. Given that the minimum wage in Nigeria amounts to about N360,000 per year, it is apparent that the cost of even a level 1 to level 2 scheme is not affordable for many Nigerians, who would need about 6-7 months of their salary upfront in order to save up enough to purchase the most basic solar system with a solar power inverter. Finance might only be possible through loan schemes, where the user pays periodically until the cost of the system has been paid off and the customer then owns the system.
Other than the development of loan schemes which are difficult to manage successfully in a country like Nigeria with such a large portion of the population living under the minimum wage level; the other option is for solar providers to wait for solar costs to fall still further; or appreciate that counter intuitively (as noted above), greater profitability actually may not lie in targeting only a wealthier tier of consumers (as most of the market seems conditioned to do); but in making provision for all income levels - since the majority of customers can only afford the lowest level basic systems that provide domestic lighting, phone charging and small fans. Providers should accept that most of their income could lie in making more low income provision such as DC lights, phone charging and small energy efficient fans and other appliances with low energy requirements, rather than chasing providing only for wealthier homes which are fewer and further between.
Finally, a very real beacon of hope for small income households in Africa, lies in the ongoing technological development of appliances specifically for use with solar energy technology. This means we are seeing the development of lower energy appliances that can operate with less power, such as LED lighting, and very low energy electric fans. This means that in the future appliances might become so energy efficient as to become operable at more affordable low wattage. This trend is certainly being observed with low energy lights and fans which are now operable at very low outputs as in table 2, below, that are commensurate with tier 0 - tier 1 and 2 solar capacities[10].
Table 2. Low Energy Modern Fans
USB mini-fans: 2-10 Watts
Small desk fans: 5-30 Watts
Energy-efficient BLDC (Brushless DC) ceiling fans: 10-30 Watts
Earth Science Events
8 April 2026
International Conference on Conservation Agriculture and Soil Erosion Control
VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.
21-23 April 2026
Future Health Africa 2026: Re-imagining Healthcare through technology in Africa
VENUE: Casablanca, Morocco.
6-11 July 2026
5th International Conference on African Rivers: Research Development and Innovation
VENUE: Mohamed V. University, Rabat, Morocco.
21 July
International Conference on Hydraulics and Civil Engineering Solutions
VENUE: Cape Town, South Africa.
21-23 September 2026
African Water Security Conference - Towards and Secure and Resilient Africa
VENUE: Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
8-11 December
7th International Africa Congress on Hydro environment and engineering Research
- Water Resilience & Innovation
VENUE: Kigali, Rwanda.
References and Selected Reading
[1] Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-28, Global Solar Council, 2025.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] 2025 Renewable Energy (Solar) Industry Report (Nigeria), Agusto, 2025. https://agustoresearch.com
[5] Nigeria Accelerates Rural Electrification, Africa Energy Portal (AEP), 08 January, 2026.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2024, ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme), World Bank, 2024. https://www.esmap.org/sites/default/files/esmap-files/2024-off-grid-solar-market-trends-report.pdf.
[8] Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined, World Bank Group 2026, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/energy-access
Citation: Bhatia, M; Angelou, N. 2015. Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined. ESMAP Technical Report; 008/15 (c) World Bank.http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24368
License: CC BY 3.0 IGO ; https://doi.org/10.1596/24368
[9] Ibid.
[10] How Much Electricity Does a Fan Use? Complete 2025 Cost Guide, Solar Tech, July 2025.
*Board of the Society of African Earth Scientists: Dr Enas Ahmed (Egypt), Osmin Callis (Secretary - Guyana/Nigeria), Dr Stanley Echebima (Nigeria), Mathada Humphrey (South Africa), Damola Nadi (Nigeria), Dr Chukwunyere Kamalu (Chair - Nigeria).
